Zerodha, founded in 2010, is India’s largest stock broker by the number of active clients (6m). They are unique in many ways & adopt counter-intuitive ideas such as philosophy of user disengagement, never advertised its products, no external funding etc.

Kailash Nadh, Ph.D in Artificial Intelligence & Computational Linguistics, is the CTO and is popular for writing in 2019: “powered by AI / ML” moniker is simply a marketing theme & value is limited to signaling to the markets without any real benefits for end-users. He confirmed at that time Zerodha only uses commodity image recognition models for document verification. (He is one of those guys who knew about GPT3 in 2021 and mentions it in the post!) (link)

In a post on 13th May 2023 he has changed his stance after an experiment to generate production-quality code that integrated itself in 30minutes. He says, “Soon after, we figured that if were to push a bit harder, just LLM based automation could directly obsolete 20% or more jobs at Zerodha across departments in no time” (link)

Result? They have announced a AI policy – “We will not fire anyone on the team just because we have implemented a new piece of technology that makes an earlier job redundant.” (link)

As I am trying to separate the wheat from the chaff about AI and all things between man & machine, this event is a tipping point. I have to think deeper on what this means to life, family, friends and my daughter. Time for a long walk, bye for now!

Flights & Visa

• Flew in Scoot, return by VietJet air. The payment did not go through VietJet air booking system, booked through cheaptickets.sg
• Visa is required for Indian passport holders. The process is fully online and took 3 days for the e-visa to be approved. Applied here and paid 25 USD / person
• No proof for accommodation or return tickets was asked at entry immigration.

Stay

• Hanoi Pearl hotel in old quarter, near Hoan Kiem lake. Large enough room with 1 double + 1 single bed overlooking the street and a decent spread of breakfast.

Food

• All of the restaurants listed below are in and around the old quarter and have good options for Vegetarians
• MET Vietnamese Restaurant, outlet #1 & #2 for lunch & dinner (5/5)
• King Roti for matcha, vanilla, coffee cocoa-filled buns (4/5)
• Pizza 4P’s for dinner (4/5)
• Corner Food for light & quick meal. Fried rice was good, noodles was just ok. (4/5)
• Chayfood for vegan pho (5/5)
• Banh Mi 25 for the baguette sandwich (2/5)

Coffee

• It is such a big deal that it deserves its own section! Coffee is served with a glass of water on the side.
• Note Coffee, sticky notes everywhere. Everyone can leave a note (4/5)
• Cong Ca Phe, communist themed coffee shop. We enjoyed the coconut coffee. Level 2, opposite church (5/5)
• Hidden Alley, true to its name (5/5)

Places of interest

• Ninh Binh day trip, booked a private tour with guide Toan through WithLocals.com.
  • Started at 8am and returned by 5pm.
  • 500 steps to reach the mesmerising Hang Mua Viewpoint with Mountain Goats
  • Fascinating to watch mountain goats on rocks high up
  • Exotic lunch at a restaurant that is hard to go without Toan
  • Magical boat ride around the lime stone rocks and caves at Van Long. No tourists unlike Tam Coc and Trang An. Caught a glimpse of the endangered Delccour’s Langurs.
• Toan is a simple talkative friendly guy. Besides the tour, he accompanied us to the supermarket and helped us choose Vietnamese cooking sauces. If not for him, we would not have discovered Cong Ca Phe. He has a small network of tour guides in Saigon & Siam Reap. Reach him directly through his website.
• Ha Long bay day trip, booked directly through Jade Sails Cruises.
  • Started at 7am and returned by 8pm.
  • Pick up from hotel and drop in a Ford Transit fitted with individual massage-enabled seats with stops in places with clean toilets. Itinerary was followed to the dot except the floating village was missing.
  • The crew ensured special attention for vegetarian food requests. Lucky with < 50% occupancy.
  • 1 or 2 night cruise are more popular among tourists. Decision of a day trip worked well, no hassles of multiple rounds of packing / unpacking without diluting the experience of sitting back and enjoying the unique landscape.
• In Hanoi city, we walked through French quarter, Hoan Kiem lake, Ba Dinh Square, Tran Quoc pagoda in west lake, Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Hanoi.
• Train street is a quirky and fun experience. Due to a recent accident, traditional entry is blocked with 1 stick-welding policeman. Many fun things to observe- pets, kids, tourists, locals, negotiation with the police man
• Thang Long water puppet show in Vietnamese language, 1000 year old performing art form. Nice experience but got boring after some time. English audio guide helped to get a better context.

Local Transport

• Except for once, we used Grab for all local rides. Rides of 2-3kms cost between 50,000 to 80,000 VND. Grab also worked well for the ride from airport to hotel for 380,000 VND

Currency (for Singapore residents only)

• Instarem’s Amaze virtual credit card continues to work well for foreign currency transactions with forex charges much lower than ~3% fees by credit cards
• For cash, Changi Travel Exchange. Paid in SGD online a day in advance & picked up VND from Terminal 3 between door 3 & 4. Hassle-free & better rates than the other airport money changers run by banks

If you are reading this, you will know how to reach me. If not, twitter @rajspace

P.S – Due to issues with wordpress media library unable to add pictures to the post.

I was unable to attend a cousin’s wedding during Covid times in early 2021. The missed opportunity was the catalyst for this letter. It has been edited for public reading without diluting the essence. I review & update it annually since then. Here is latest one updated on 6-Aug-2022.

Check this out – http://bit.ly/5moneychoices / Download PDF version

You are welcome to share feedback and queries in twitter @rajspace

Price of 1 share of ITC is Rs 257 (as of 14/10/2021)

The share represents part ownership in the business (not a piece of paper or line in the demat account)

In FY2019, the share generated Rs 7.60 in cash
In FY2020, the share generated Rs 9.90 in cash
In FY2021, the share generated Rs 8.70 in cash

All the cash generated belongs to the owner of the share. It is paid out as dividend or retained in the company. Difference is:

• Dividend is credited in the share owner’s personal bank account.
• Retained earnings is with ITC for new investments (capital allocation is the cool-sounding term)

In FY2019, the share generated Rs 7.60 cash. 5.75 was paid out as dividend & 1.85 was retained by ITC. (7.60 – 5.75 = 1.85)

In FY2020, the share generated Rs 9.90 cash. 10.15 was paid out as dividend & 0 was retained.

In FY2021, the share generated Rs 8.70 cash. 10.75 was paid out as dividend & 0 was retained.

(In FY20 & FY21, dividend is more than cash generated. Where did the excess come from? It came from past retained earnings.)

In the 1980 letter, Warren Buffet explains “the value of those retained earnings is determined by the use to which they are put and the subsequent level of earnings produced by that usage”. Later in the 1990 letter, he calls it “forgotten-but-not-gone” earnings.

Majority in the markets are not happy with ITC’s use of the retained earnings. The perception is forgotten-and-gone, up in the smoke of a cigarette! Hence the stock price has under performed in the past 5 years.

What about the minority in the markets? They have, in Tom Russo’s words, the capacity to suffer. A necessity to win in auction-driven markets.

Disclosure: Invested since pre-Covid times.

Ram: Markets are at an all time high… so many stocks doing superb! Wish my portfolio was better

Shyam: What do you exactly mean by “markets are all time high”?

R: Look at the Nifty & Sensex. Nifty is up 26% in the past 6 months, 31% YTD. Sensex is up 26% in the last 6 months, 28% YTD. Just yesterday, it was up 1%!

S: So by “markets”, you mean the indices – Nifty & Sensex. Isn’t that good? We are all benefiting 

R: Not really or at least I don’t feel that way. My portfolio is not.

S: ok, let’s draw an analogy. India is playing well and expected to win the world cup. Which of the 3 bets will you make?

1. Betting on West Indies
2. A dream team i.e best players picked from all teams
3. Betting on India

If you bet on A, then you are being a contrarian. You may lose the bet this world cup but could be the winner in the next. (this doesn’t make sense in cricket and most things in life but in investing it does. This is one reason investing is simple but not easy. It “doesn’t make sense” to a centuries-evolved human brain)

If you bet on B, it’s your portfolio versus the index. (large majority of investors including fund managers struggle to win over the index consistently)

If C, betting on India as a team means betting on the Nifty or Sensex. If “markets” go up, you benefit. If “markets: go down, you lose. There is no dichotomy of markets (aka indices) v/s my portfolio. index = portfolio.

R: So, which bet has historically worked the most in investing?

S: There are no right or wrong bets. One can bet on all 3 options, equally or varying weights. World cup ends and a winner emerges. Markets are perpetual. Hence the winner is different in 1 day, 3 months, 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years.

The question is what is your time frame? T20 or one-day or test?

Last week I had the opportunity to share my thoughts and experience with about 70 students from University of Mysore. The theme was life in the Indian IT Industry in 2021 & beyond – emerging trends in the industry & how to stay competitive as a professional.

I enjoyed the journey through the memory lane to distill the highlights. Here is a short summary:

1. Trend is your friend
2. Dream > Learn > Publish & Help (repeat)
   • Dream: possibilities are endless
   • Learn: on-the-job learning is different from college-learning
   •  Publish & Help: publish your works & build trust
3. Compete with yourself, not others
4. Avoid the zero multipliers in life

I am fascinated by the shipping industry. 90% of world logistics happens through maritime. 100s of seafarers are held hostage at any given time and hardly any of us care! The TED talk I have watched the most times is Inside the secret shipping industry by Rose George. In a connected world, only 10% of freight ships have internet available for its crew. I subscribed to the Shipping Podcast by Lena Gothberg a couple of years back & happened to listen the interview of Reshma Nilofer last week. She is a maritime pilot (India’s first woman) at Kolkata Port (Syama Prasad Mookerjee Port Trust) & recipient of the Nari Shakti Puraskar in 2018 from the Indian president.

1 insight:

1. Seafarers and maritime industry deserve recognition as much as healthcare workers in keeping the world’s supply chain running during the pandemic

2 experiences:

1. Accident while getting off a ship in bad weather in Aug 2020
2. Serendipitous entry into the shipping industry

3 ideas:

1. An aspiration for product labels to indicate the role of maritime industry in delivering the product to our hands.
2. The pilot is employed by the port, not the shipping company. He/she stays offshore at the port and uses a pilot boat to reach the ship. The pilot understands the waterways around the port and maneuvers the ship through the confined waters.
3. The highest grade of qualification for a seafarer is Master Mariner. A master mariner’s license is considered unlimited because there is no tonnage or geographic limitations for the holder to operate

Link: https://shippingpodcast.com/154-reshma-nilofer-maritime-pilot-kolkata-port-trust-india/

 

Micheal Saylor, CEO of Microstrategy, came up in my radar when I was developing deeper interest in bitcoin (reading this & listening to this). In Aug 2020, Saylor invested $250 million in bitcoins using Microstrategy’s cash in the balance sheet. An investor buying bitcoins is one but a business owner of a publicly listed company making a corporate treasury decision is serious.

1 insight:

1. Technology has “dematerialized” goods. Google dematerialized books & libraries. Apple did that to the camera, photo album, clock, atlas, music. These goods will never see inflation because the marginal cost for these goods is zero due to the demat.

3 ideas:

1. The headline inflation published by the government is irrelevant for most people. Inflation depends on the life we live and aspire for. Hyperinflation exists in scarce assets such as real estate in Tokyo, London, New York.
2. To drive adoption among masses- make it easy & give them a role model
3. On top of the core Bitcoin network which is the base settlement layer, blocks will get built such as Square & Paypal will solve the problem of buying coffee with bitcoin. Apple could provide the hardware wallet to store bitcoin. “Every time a new consistency joins the bitcoin network, they are going to plug a functionality gap”.

Link: https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/btc005-bitcoin-michael-saylor-a-masterclass-in-economic-calculation/

I have not watched a single episode of Seinfield nor his standup comedy. I did not know how popular he and his shows are! Then why did I add the Tim Ferris interview of Jerry Seinfield to the listen queue?

• “he was offered $5 million per show to stay on another season – but quit because he knew the thing that made the show great was slipping away.” from Morgan Housel’s blog
• Systems, Routines, and Methods in the title of the podcast! (a case of catchy-headline bias!)

1 insight:

1. On writing – It is hard (arduous, painful, pushing against the wind in soft, muddy ground with a wheelbarrow full of bricks). No one can write all day. Two phases in writing: free-play creative phase followed by polish and construction phase. After you finish writing a piece, cherish the wonderful moment. Wait for a day before sharing with others. 95 percent rewrite.

2 experiences:

1. Verbal duel with the owner of The Comedy Store in LA (Jerry was 25 years old): I was angry. I was angry. I was frustrated. I was resentful. But I used that. It was just fuel for me. She wasn’t stopping me. Nobody was going to stop me. But when someone is that hostile to you, that can be a very good thing if you’re tough, if you’re tough enough to eat that shit and say, “She’s not stopping me.”. I went from three days a week to seven right there.
2. As a parent, Jerry did not have time for meals with friends and that is when “coffee happened”.

3 ideas:

1. Survival is the new success
2. Life in the 40s – “You get this free ride till you’re, let’s be generous, 43, and then God goes, “You know what? I’m going to move on to the people in their — 16 to 23 and I’m going to give them my best. If you want to hang around, you can hang around, but I’m not giving you anything anymore. It’s on you now. If you want to stick around, go ahead, but I got nothing for you. You figure it out.”
3. The mind & brain are different. Mind is the wisdom. Brian is primitive/stupid so systemization & repetitiveness is the key to master

Following books were referred to: Is This Anything? by Jerry Seinfield, The Last Laugh by Phil Berger, Body for Life by Bill Phillips, Seriously Funny by Gerald Nachman

Link: https://tim.blog/2020/12/08/jerry-seinfeld/

In the 2000s, Contest2Win was a significant Indian internet success story & Alok Kejriwal was the brains behind it. I looked up to Alok in those days. Hence was curious to hear to his thoughts & what is he up to recently.

1 insight:

1. Gaming/sports has strong sense of engagement. So much that people watch other people play even when they are not going to win [or have the pleasure of playing]

2 experiences:

1. Softbank was early investor in Contests2win. Softbank invited Alok to China & helped establish the Mobile2win business. (2001)
2. Alok’s company Mobile2win came up with idea to use SMS for the TV show Indian Idol voting (2002)

3 ideas:

1. Startups that change human behaviours become big
2. Difference between a mature & young entrepreneur: knowing what to punish yourself for & what not to.
3. Entrepreneurship requires deep insight. Such deep insights come from silence which in turns comes from being meditative.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKK5YbDP48k